Page 17 - WWU Innovation Report 2019-2020

Approach
The project team developed and trialed a new forecasting methodology similar to one used for electricity networks to create a set of regional scenarios for gas and heat to the year 2035. These would provide the evidence to help us and other stakeholders understand future demand, supplies and reductions in carbon.
By developing methodologies used by the DNO in our network and incorporating local authority development plans, we were able to produce energy forecasts for gas and electricity combined – a prototype Distribution FES.
Using the four National Grid FES 2018 energy scenarios and adding a fifth, Hybrid Accelerator, provided a common framework and an overarching set
of assumptions. The scenarios were developed using data gathering,
energy system analysis and stakeholder engagement in Wales and
south west England.
Alongside our technical partner Regen, analysis was conducted on 100 Gas Supply Areas identified across Wales and the south west of England as part our study.
Benefits
This innovative approach to developing regional future energy scenarios for gas networks is the first of its kind. Mapping every locality in our region to find long-term solutions for heat, power and transport provides benefits for all – allowing data to be extracted in geographies that are most relevant for different stakeholders.
Ultimately, it will enable closer alignment between regional gas and electricity network planning, which will be essential to a future ‘whole-system’ approach.
Wales & West Utilities Innovation Report 2019/20 | 17